China Truck Industry to 2025: Country Report, November 2015

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Key Features

  • An examination of the structural factors at play in the long term development of the market, and their interactions
  • A look at the potential for restructuring of the industry in the medium term in the context of government preferences and the strengths of individual truck makers
  • Consideration of the Chinese industry as a potential exporter to the emerging markets and the world
  • Forecasts including assessments of possible alternative futures for the industry dependent on scenarios for policy decisions and events including a hard landing scenario.

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Chapter 1: A snapshot of Current long term perspectives for the industry
  • Regulation and policy continue to push pace of change 
  • Volume growth no longer the key
  • e-commerce, IT, modern logistics methods are changing customer profiles 
  • Content as the new opportunity 
  • Outlook for China’s domestic brands domination   
  • Prospects for and implications of overseas push 
Chapter 2: Road Transport and other relevant Industrial Policy

Rapid Growth of Road Transport Activity: rebalancing potential

  • Weights & Dimensions change
  • Emissions Regulations and Timetables
  • Accelerated Vehicle Scrappage 
  • Toll Road ‘reform’
  • Sifting Modal shares
  • Complications of sectoral reform
  • Fuel Economy Measures 
Chapter 3: The External Sector 
  • Exports – grand plans, against constrained backdrop 
  • Imported Trucks
  • Impact of Net Trade: Domestic Market versus Factory Sales
Chapter 4: Competitive Framework 
  • Concentration and ownership
  • Capacity & Utilisation
  • Regional Differences – local ‘strongholds’
  • Pricing and differentiation through product evolution
  • Who will the winners be? 
Chapter 5: Changing Customers amidst growth of ‘Logistics’  
  • Where does China rank in professional logistics? 
  • Current Structure of Road Transport Industry
  • Growth of ‘modern’ logistics companies and infrastructure
  • Future demands of rebalanced economy
Chapter 6: Detailed Base Forecast, China Truck Market & Industry 

Assumption: progressive slowing of growth, but no ‘crisis’ 

  • Short Term Forecast Considerations
  • Medium-Term Considerations 
  • The Base Forecast in detail 
Chapter 7: China Trucks in the event of a ‘Hard Landing’ 
  • Weaker volumes in decade ahead
  • Impact on Freight Volume, transport industry modernization
  • ‘Hard Landing’ Scenario: volumes, pricing, industry structure 
Appendix: Forecast Tables in Detail

 

74 pages, 25 tables and 36 graphs.

€8,000

Detailed discussion with the lead analysts on the information and models behind the forecast will be available to the report buyers to help to help them to extract the insights most relevant their business prospects and planning.

 

List of tables

2014 China Logistics Enterprises Annual Top 50 List

China Truck Forecast overview 2013-2014A and 2015-2025E

China’s Heavy Duty Diesel Emissions Regulations

China’s Surface Transportation Structure by Mode, 2000-2014

Comparison of Price Levels for Domestic & Imported Vehicles, October 2015

Comparison of Typical Legal Payloads, Europe, US, China

Delays in implementing Exhaust Emission standards in China

Engine Supply Matrix, 2014, showing Engine Supply and Consumption by Assembler Heavy Trucks >14t GVW, sold in domestic Chinese market

Example of GB 1589 Regulation & related matters

Factory Sales by Major Manufacturer & Segment, 2014A-2025E

Factory Sales Quarterly Summary. 2013 Q1A – 2017 Q4E

Forecast Overview, China Truck Industry 2009-2014A, 2015-2025E

GB1589 Amendment: Some key proposed changes to maximum Truck/Trailer Combination Length

Joint Venture Operations and their Prospects

Key forecast changes and rationale

Nationwide Diesel Fuel Quality Improvement: key Dates

Participation in Chinese Domestic Light/Medium/Heavy Commercial Vehicle Business, with shares of domestic market, 2014

Policy Measures Contemplated in Recent State Council Long Term Plan

Quarterly Forecast Summary, 1Q14-1Q15A and 2Q15-4Q16E

Quarterly Forecasts for Articulated Trucks, by Manufacturer. 2013 Q1A – 2017 Q4E.

Quarterly Forecasts for Heavy Trucks (inc Artics), by Manufacturer. 2013 Q1A – 2017 Q4E

Quarterly Forecasts for Medium Trucks, by Manufacturer. 2013 Q1A – 2017 Q4E

Regional Market Participation by Major Chinese Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturers, 2014

Truck Sales, Parc and other Road Transport Determinants, China, US, EU, 2013/14

 

List of graphs 

Average Selling Prices Tractors 2009-2014

Beiben Relative Share Heat Map, 2014 data & Production Footprint

CAMC Relative Share Heat Map, 2014 data & Production Footprint

Changing Tractor Price Levels

China HDT Exports, Share of 2014 Export Volume by income of importer, current US$

China Sales (smoothed) of Heavy Duty Trucks versus Heavy Construction Equipment

China Truck Exports monthly jan-September 2015

China Truck in event of “Hard Landing” Economic difference

China Truck in event of “Hard Landing” Factory sales difference

China’s Heavy Duty Truck Market: Estimated Underlying’ and ‘Irregular’ components 1Q13-4Q15E.

China’s Recent Reported GDP and the Momentum Indicator, 1Q02-1Q15

Chinese HDT Exports by Geographic Destination, 2014, and by Destination Type

Chinese Heavy truck Exports by Major Destinations, 1H2014 and 1H2015

CNHTC Relative Share Heat Map, 2014 data & Production Footprint

Comparison of Engine Supply and Commercial Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer, 2014

Concentration in HDT Industry compared across Global Truck Markets: Comparative

Domestic factory sales five year averages 2007-2025

Dongfeng Relative Share Heat Map, 2014 data & Production Footprint

Estimated Chinese Heavy Duty Capacity and Capacity Utilisation Ratio, 2007-2020

Estimated Impact of Emission Regulation on Truck Demand,

Estimated Purchasing by Size of Fleet

Evolving GDP outlook

Factory Sales of Heavy Trucks and Economic Growth  2000-2025

Forecast heavy truck sales by class

Foton Relative Share Heat Map, 2014 data & Production Footprint

Fragmented Customer Base for Heavy Trucks

Fuel Consumption Limits set in Current National Standards: l/100km per GVW band.

Growth in Road Freight Turnover and heavy vehicle parc

HDT Sales by Province, 2014. Units (000s)

Heat Map of Modern Logistics Facilities

Heavy Duty Truck Industry Concentration by Province

Heavy Duty Truck Sales in China, Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rates (SAAR). Units: 000s of vehicles

Heavy Truck Product Mix by Price Band 2009-2014

Heavy Trucks, China. Factory & Domestic Sales Compared, 2008A-2025E

Herfindahl Index scores for 2014

Highway & Road Freight Turnover (tonkm millions) compared. Dec 2010-Sep 2015

Illustrative forecasts for Road Tractor &Heavy Rigid Average Selling Prices (Rmb000)

IMF China GDP Growth Forecast to 2020. (July 2014 Scenarios updated to April 15 Base)

Imported versus Exported Medium & Heavy Trucks, China, 000s of trucks

Logistics Costs in China, according to CFLP

Market Shares in Basic Dumper Segment

Medium Duty Truck Sales in China, Seasonally Adjusted at Annualized Rates (SAAR). Units: 000s of vehicles

Modern Warehouse Density by Province, available sq m, millions

Net Trade balance, for both HDT & Medium Trucks

October IMF Forecast versus previous IMF China Real GDP Growth Forecasts by date

Potential Mix Changes, Heavy Trucks

Projected Sales Distribution by Price band for Long Haul tractor unit.

Projections for Sales of Low-End and Medium High/High End Road Tractor Sales (000s)

Recent Activity: Highway Ton-km (bn) and Tons lifted (m)

Regional Heavy Truck Sales, 2014

Shaanxi Relative Share Heat Map, 2014 data & Production Footprint

Share of Tractors in total HDT Parc to 2025

Tractor Parc by Average Selling Price Category to 2025

Trends in HDT sales in major regions

Underlying market and irregulars

Warehouse Facilities in China, million sqm

Warehouse stock compared to the US, total area (sqm) per capita

World Bank Logistics Performance Indicator

Years between implementation of China’s National Emissions Standards

Province-level Heavy truck Sales and relationship with Freight Transport, and GDP. 2014

 

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